A digital distribution revolution, comparable to what we went through in the tech boom of the 90s, could be right around the corner. This article focuses on movies but it really applies to games, software, music etc. By the end of the article you’ll see that the ISPs are really in control and ultimately hold the matches over the fuel; when the matches slip from their fingers is up to them.
With HD DVDs right around the corner, some people might be wondering what the next medium will be. It seems like we had VHS for so many years then finally the switch to regular DVDs. While many people have now replaced their old collections with DVDs they’re going to have to start all over again. It’s an extremely frustrating situation where some people argue that if you purchase a movie, music, games etc. that you should have the rights to at least copy it and use it with different technologies if not the ability to have that title on the new medium for free. While the “free” will never stand, the ability to convert the media/program for use with other devices should be fair game and many companies are now allowing this with some control. If the ISPs follow through in their role of providing much higher internet speeds (which they haven’t done very well thus far in the
Everything really falls on the shoulders of the ISPs because they have more power than they really should. If they continue to be as slow as they are now, where countries in northern Europe and Asia have speeds of 100Mbps+ while here in America, we’re stuck with speeds around 4Mbps. That’s such a huge difference it makes any internet addict want to move. Sure, we have a much bigger country than say
If the ISPs do their job and we have much greater than 100Mbps internet connection speeds for similar prices to you’re paying right now, say goodbye to those big boxes you have under your desks. I think they will be a thing of the past. Don’t worry, you’ll still be able to customize your PC and do what you want to it but it will be something more like a co-location web host. Bring the boxes to the ISP; don’t bring the ISP to the box. Users will have the option of bringing in their own systems or there will be an option to use a massive grid or server that is run and maintained by the ISPs. While this might look like a cost nightmare to the companies, I think that in the long run it will work to their benefit. If you think about all the connection set-ups and maintenance work the ISPs do everyday I’m sure that has to cost quite a bit of money. If they could minimize this by having “farms” where many machines are located in a climate-controlled buildings it saves a lot of headaches for both them and their customers. If a user has a problem with their computer they can either have it serviced at the farm itself or pick it up. Essentially, your new home computer will be a “thin client”. This might be hard for a hardware geek to think about but I think it will happen someday.
How does the fact that you no longer have a physical computer at your house have anything to do with movies? Simple; all of the movies you buy are downloaded to your “computer,” whether it be space on a grid/server, space on your own drives, or streamed to you (or temporarily downloaded) if you decide to rent – similar to current on-demand services. Not only will these movies have lightening fast delivery, they will also be in the highest quality available. Not to mention, you will have easy and secure access to your computer anywhere in the world. You’re TV will also be connected to this network and you will be able to access your computer through your TV. Forget about DVRs, all you need is the space on your computer and a software company to make a user friendly interface if you connect with a TV. So if you’re at a hotel 1000 miles from home you’ll be able to watch one of the movies you own on the hotel’s TV. I’m sure you can think of plenty of possibilities. While I like the concept of the DVR I again see the physical box no longer existing in your house.
Not only does this apply to movies but also games, music, any software, and any similar media. The homes of the future will have much less hardware; only internet lines because it’s really all you need. Want a different song on your iPod Vertex? All you have to do is press a few buttons and the song will automatically be downloaded through a nationwide wireless network; something else that I think will come sometime in the future – maybe run by Google. But forget about storage limits on those extraordinary popular digital music players, the content will be streamed from your “computer” because the wireless network is so fast and reliable. Access to any media anywhere is the key.
Now back to the question I raised at the beginning: will the switch to HD DVDs be worth it? There’s been such a fuss over the two different formats it getting to be ridiculous. As I stated, I believe the major factor is how soon the ISPs roll out faster speeds across the nation. While the prices should initially be quite high for the HD DVD players and the DVDs themselves, it might be worth it to put your money into whatever the better format turns out to be. I say this only because the ISPs have been so slow in rolling out the higher speeds and now that both of the DVD formats support a managed copy you should have no problem with putting your new movies on your computer. Either way you’ll definitely want to get an HDTV as these signals will eventually become the mainstream.
Just think about all the collaboration between multiple companies. While the ISPs will be at the helm, there is an obvious need for storage, software, and networking. Not only would the home user be benefiting from all of this but these companies will form new long-term relationships that help drive the tech market forward. When this happens it will change a lot of things but the focus can never stray from the users.
